Colombia at the Crossroads

ove rv i ew The In s ti tute for the Stu dy of Di p l om acy hosted the spring session of the Sch l e s i n ger Work i n g Group on the topic of s tra tegic su rprise in Co l ombi a . Af ter a pre s en t a ti on on four po ten tial scen a rios that may face Co l om bia (see next page ) , S ch l e s i n ger Working Group core mem bers and Co l om bia specialists ex a m i n ed the key factors driving events in this con fli ct s c a rred co u n try, as well as po s s i ble outcomes for current po l i tical initi ative s . Am ong other issu e s , the parti c i p a n t s to u ch ed on the ra n ge and dynamics of the pre s en t con fli ct , its ef fects on Co l om bian insti tuti on s , t h e co u n try ’s nei gh bors , as well as on the role of powerful out s i de players , pri m a ri ly the Un i ted State s . Upon defining these key factors ,p a rticipants identi f i ed a broad outline for futu re policy tow a rd s Co l om bi a , wh i ch would safeg u a rd key U. S .i n tere s t s , defin ed as an end to the con fli ct , po l i tical and econ omic stabi l i ty in the regi on , and the su ppre ss i on of the drug trade . The fo ll owing report is b a s ed on the informal and gen eral fin d i n gs of t h e group and is therefore not a con s en sus doc u m en t .